AFP - Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's bloc looked likely to form parliament's single largest grouping Tuesday, after results showed the incumbent had strengthened his hold on key Baghdad province.

Former Bush adviser Karl Rove is making the rounds to promote his new book Courage and Consequence: My Life as a Conservative in the Fight. He landed on NBC's Meet the Press Sunday, interviewed by Tom Brokaw. Brokaw asked him about his book's discussion of the Iraq War:

BROKAW: And in it, you acknowledge when weapons of mass destruction were not found, everyone was startled and not very happy about that. If that had been the case before war began, you couldn't have gotten congressional authorization.

ROVE: Nor in all likelihood U.N. approval, as we had as well.

BROKAW: Would you have launched the war if you had known there were weapons of mass destruction?

ROVE: Well, as I say in the book, we would not have had either the authorization from Congress nor the U.N., and we probably would have found other ways to constrain his behavior.

There was no U.N. approval for the Iraq War.

The White House always argued that U.N. Security Council Resolution 1441 gave them legal cover for the war, but it did not -- it warned of "serious consequences" if Iraq failed to disarm.

As the U.N. weapons inspectors were reporting back from Iraq, the White House was seeking a second Security Council vote that would have officially sanctioned military action. That effort was unsuccessful, and the U.S./U.K. attack began without that Security Council approval.

This is not ancient history, nor is particularly obscure; coverage of Iraq and the U.N. weapons inspections in early 2003 was fairly intense, and Brokaw's NBC newscast aired several reports on the U.S. efforts to win U.N. support for a war resolution. (Brokaw himself on March 10, 2003, for example: "Tonight, the French vowed to veto any U.S. war resolution at the U.N., while Secretary of State Powell continued to look for votes and a plan that would allow the United States to go to war with some kind of U.N. approval.")

Rove undoubtedly knows this history, too. What he's counting on is that journalists like Brokaw will either not remember these facts, or will be too polite to bring them up.

Will US troops leave Iraq in 2011?

I was asked recently by a friend what I thought would happen when the deadline for troop withdrawal from Iraq (December 2011) arrived. Here is my response, for what it is worth:

Like so many others who have been following the recent developments in Iraq, I do not have a settled opinion on what will happen to the US military presence there between now and the end of 2011, when the Status of Forces Agreement calls for the withdrawal of all troops (not just "combat" troops). For me, the (so far) definitive statement on this question by Obama was his 2006 election campaign statement at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, where he firmly asserted the need to maintain a (approximately 50,000 strong) US "strike force" in or near Iraq to guarantee US interests in the Middle East, to allow Washington to move quickly against jihadists in the region, and to make clear to "our enemies" that the US will not be "driven from the region." (I am attaching that document, which I still think is the most explicit expression of his thinking on this issue.) In that statement he said that this force could be stationed in Iraq, perhaps in Kurdistan, or in a nearby country (despite the absence of nearby candidates). Since taking office he has neither reiterated nor repudiated this policy, but his actions have made it very clear that he is unwilling to sacrifice the 50k strike force, even while he has also said he would abide by the SOFA and remove all troops from Iraq by the end of 2011. In the meantime, Gates and various generals have released hedging statements or trial balloons (see the recent Tom Dispatch article by Engelhardt) saying that the 2011 deadline might be impractical and that various types of forces might stay longer, either to provide air power, to continue training the Iraq military, or to protect Iraq from invasion. Any or all of these could translate into the maintenance of the 50k strike force as well as the five (previously labeled as) "enduring bases." Moreover, while there has been considerable coverage of the vast project undertaken by the U.S. military to remove the billions of equipment from Iraq, I have seen no reports of any dismantling of the five "enduring bases" and, as Engelhardt reports, continued effort to expand the already record-breaking Embassy to accommodate additional hundreds of administrators above the original 1000 projected US officials there. Another sign that the Obama administration intends to maintain a significant military presence in Iraq after 2011 is the continued insistence that Iraqi "democracy" must be guaranteed. In "Washington speak," this means that the government of Iraq must be an ally of the United States, a condition that has been iterated and reiterated by all factions (GOP and Democrat) in Washington, since the original invasion. Given the increasing unwillingness of the Maliki administration to follow US dictates (for example, on oil contracts, on relations with Iran, and on relations with Anbar and other Sunni provinces), the removal of troops would allow Maliki even more leeway to pursue policies unacceptable to Washington. Thus, even if Maliki succeeds himself in the Premiership, the US may need troops to keep the pressure on him. If he does not succeed himself, then the likely alternate choices are far more explicit in their antagonism to integration of Iraq into the US sphere of interest. (Even Iyad Allawi -- the leader of the major contender for a parliamentary plurality -- who was once a US client premier, has voiced stronger and stronger opposition to tight relations with the US.). The Obama administration would then be left with the unacceptable prospect that withdrawal would result in Iraq adopting a posture not unlike Iran's with regard to US presence and influence in the Middle East. All in all, there are myriad signs that withdrawal of U.S. troops might result in Iraq breaking free from U.S. influence and/or deprive the United States of the strong military presence in that part of the Middle East that both Bush and Obama advocated and have struggled to establish. Until I see some sign that the five bases are going to be dismantled, I will continue to believe that the US will find some reason -- with or without the consent of the Iraqi government -- to maintain a very large (on the order of 50k) military force there.

Preliminary figures confirm strong lead for State of Law, followed by Iyad Allawi's Iraqiya.

This weekend Alice beat Matt who beat Jay, but barely. Jay beat James but only because James is old. Marty and Leo keep beating each other. Yes, in that way. 1) Alice in Wonderland —...

AP - The U.S. military has turned over a prison holding some 2,900 detainees to Iraqi authorities.

Six days have passed since Iraq's nationwide elections, and there are still no real results. Last Sunday, about 62 percent of eligible voters defied threats of violence to cast a ballot. Guest host Jacki Lyden gets the latest from NPR's Quil Lawrence in Baghdad.

AP - A Shiite extremist group on Monday discounted claims from its former hostage that he was mistreated, presenting a video taken during his two year captivity showing the Briton exercising and playing with a child.

Police say seven people have been killed and 13 wounded in explosion in Falluja.

AP - A secular challenger to Iraq's prime minister is leading by a slim margin ahead of a Kurdish alliance in partial election results from a northern, oil-rich province that is home to the disputed city of Kirkuk.

Go to http://www.4uso.com to help support troops like this and their familys. American soldier talks about new inovations with prosthetic limbs. Donate to the uso and receive a free 3×5 foot flag.

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AP - Early results released by Iraq's election committee show the prime minister ahead in the oil-rich Basra province, strengthening his lead in the country's historic elections.

Prime Minister Nouri Maliki's alliance is ahead in Baghdad and four southern provinces, with a small portion of the vote counted. Official results of the parliamentary elections may take a month.

The votes tallied so far suggest weeks or months of horse-trading ahead.

AP - A secular bloc led by former Iraqi prime minister Ayad Allawi and a Shiite religious bloc both appeared to pick up votes as new results were released in Iraq's election.

AP - A coalition led by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was winning in the all-important capital, according to a partial tally of results released Saturday.

Egypt's Orascom Development Holding is planning to invest EGP5bn ($913m) to build low-cost homes in Romania, Turkey and Iraq, to generate steadier earnings growth, Bloomberg has reported. "Our projects are targeting a surge in demand 10 years down the road," Samih Sawiris, chairman and CEO said, adding that budget housing is expected to make up 20% of the firm's total revenue in two years.

Commission counting votes for national poll says fraud claims are "complete fabrication".

AP - Seizing on an early lead in Iraq's election, the prime minister's political coalition began reaching out to rivals Friday as partial results signaled a tight race that was unlikely to produce a clear-cut winner.

AP - The Iraqi prime minister's bloc said Friday it has started laying the groundwork to form a coalition government, signaling growing confidence after preliminary election results showed it winning in at least two southern provinces. Iraq